![]() |
Market Data
Treasuries Rise After Midwest Manufacturing Index Declines Treasuries extended gains after the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said manufacturing growth in the Midwest slowed in November. The group said its business barometer unexpectedly declined to 49.9, the lowest reading since April 2003, from 53.5 in October. A reading below 50 signals contraction. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for the index to reach 54.4. Along with the Institute for Supply Management's national factory index to be released tomorrow, the Chicago report is viewed as a strong indicator of whether the Fed will lower interest rates, Paul Muoio, a director in futures sales at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York, wrote to clients. The ISM may say tomorrow its index of manufacturing businesses rose to 51.9 in November, from 51.2 last month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. The central bank's last series of interest-rate cuts in 2001 began five month after the Chicago index dropped below 50. ``These surveys are about as big as it gets from the market's point of view,'' Muoio said. Initial jobless claims increased by 34,000 to 357,000 in the week that ended Nov. 25, the highest since October 2005, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, rose to 325,000 from 317,750. Treasuries remained higher after the Commerce Department said its price gauge tied to spending patterns and excluding food and energy costs rose an annualized 2.4 percent in October. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for inflation of 2.3 percent. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other policy makers have said they would be comfortable with a 1 percent to 2 percent increase in the measure over a 12-month period. Interest-rate futures contracts suggest a 73 percent chance the Fed will reduce borrowing costs a quarter-percentage point to 5 percent by March. The odds were 68 percent yesterday. The central bank raised its target overnight lending rate between banks to 5.25 percent in June and left it unchanged at its three meetings since then. U.S. retailers' November sales rose less than analysts estimated, adding to evidence of a slowing economy. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, reported a 0.1 percent decline. November same-store sales rose 2.1 percent, the weakest since March, mainly because of Wal-Mart's decline, the International Council of Shopping Centers said today. ``The gradual realization that we've seen the peak of the U.S. cycle, both inflation and growth, and this is the highest level of rates we are likely to get, has made people comfortable being long,'' said Amitabh Arora, chief U.S. interest-rate strategist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York. And More for the Information Junkies?. Get in the KNOW!! What is the market doing today? Mortgage prices, unchanged yesterday, have improved slightly after Personal Income (+.4$, +.5% expected), Personal Consumption (+.2%, +.1% expected), and Jobless Claims (357k, 310k expected!) were announced. And for those that follow these things, the Unemployment data, which normally is announced on the first Friday of the month, does not come out tomorrow but instead next Friday. |
All times are GMT +1. The time now is 07:57 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin Version 3.0.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.