Mortgage Times
 

Mortgage Market News for the week ending October 26, 2007

Events This Week:

Employment Stable
Inflation Steady
Housing Weaker
Manufacturing Down

Events Next Week:

Tues 10/30
Confidence

Wed 10/31
FOMC meeting
GDP
Chicago PMI

Thurs 11/1
Core PCE
ISM Manufacturing
Pending Sales

Fri 11/2
Employment

Fed to Cut Again?

Last week, investor expectations for economic growth shifted lower. For the mortgage market, this was good news, as it reduces the likelihood for higher future inflation, and mortgage rates eased slightly from the prior week. Monday morning, headlines from the G7 meeting of the financial leaders of the large industrialized nations revealed that the discussion centered on the potential slowdown in economic growth around the world. The September Durable Orders report, an important indicator of the health of the economy, showed a decline instead of the forecasted increase. Activity in the housing sector continued to decrease at a faster pace than expected, and big banks announced another round of losses from portfolios of mortgage securities. In short, virtually all of the major economic news aligned in the direction of slower economic growth.

Once again, the Fed is under enormous pressure to take action to boost the economy. As recently as the week before last, investor expectations for a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 31 were below 50%. By the middle of last week, however, investors were pricing in a near certainty of a 25 basis point rate cut, and a minority of them are prepared for a larger 50 basis point move. In any case, the Fed's accompanying statement will receive intense scrutiny.

Last week's economic news from the housing sector showed results below the consensus forecasts. September Existing Home Sales data fell short of expectations, declining by 8%. Inventories of unsold homes rose to a cyclical high, while median prices were 4% lower than one year ago. The September New Home Sales report came in close to expectations, but the August figures were revised substantially lower. In one of the few bright spots, median New Home prices rose 5% from one year ago. In the big picture, mortgage rates have declined back to the lowest levels of the year, and inventories of unsold homes are at the highs, making this a favorable time to be a buyer, before the pendulum swings back in the other direction.

• Also Notable:
• The potential for slower global economic growth was the focus of the weekend G7 meeting
• The US announced financial sanctions against Iran, and oil prices rose to a record high
• Treasury Secretary Paulson pointed out an "immediate need" for lenders to modify and refinance more loans
• In September, inventories of unsold homes rose to the highest level since February 1988

Average 30 yr fixed rate:
Last week:-0.12%
This week:-0.08%

Stocks (weekly):
Dow:13,727+26
NASDAQ:2,788+23

Week Ahead

Next week's main event will be Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Investors expect another rate cut, and the Fed's accompanying statement may have a large impact on mortgage markets. In addition, Friday's always important monthly Employment report will be another highlight. As usual, this data on the number of new jobs created, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month, since the health of the labor market is perhaps the single biggest factor in the performance of the economy. Early estimates are for 90,000 net new jobs added in September.

The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE price index, will be released on Thursday. The first look at Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2007 will come out on Wednesday. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity. On top of all this, the two major national manufacturing indexes are also on next week's schedule.

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Re: Mortgage Times
 

Damn dude, I forgot you did this thread and thought you were selling the house and moving to Boston!!!! Sorry I guess I should actually drink this cup of coffee in front of me before I jump on the forum!

:giggling:

Re: Mortgage Times
 

It is a good year to be a New England Sports fan, though.

Patriots: 7-0. Never done that before. They look unstopable.

Red Sox: Will probably win the WS

Celtics: Major acquisitons this year. Should be very good.

Bruins: 6-3. A better record than all but 2 teams in the West.

Re: Mortgage Times
 

Beantown Bastasds:raar: