[MarineHawk]

Originally Posted by frenzy1

Now serious: I'd really go for gold. Gold will keep it's value or will go up in value in the long term. Just my two cents !

At the end of January 1978, the DOW was at 769.92. Today, 30 years later, it’s at 12,443.64. Thus, if you invested $10,000 in a DOW index fund in January 1978, your investment would currently be worth about $161,622.51.

At the end of January 1978, Gold was at $175.75/oz. Today, 30 years later, it’s at $921.75/oz. Thus, if you invested $10,000 in Gold in January 1978, your investment would currently be worth about $53,446.66.

Two years later, in January 1980, Gold reached a high of $850.00, and the DOW was at 838.74. Thus, if you bought gold in January 1978, you would be a lot better off if you sold it in January 1980, than you would have been selling your DOW stocks. However, if, as you’re thinking now, you were BUYING gold in January 1980 after a long period of steep appreciation, you would have been screwed: a $10,000 investment in Gold in January 1980, would now be worth only $10,844.12; and a $10,000 investment in diversified DOW stocks would now be worth $148,361.11.

Even if you were super smart or lucky and bought Gold during its 15-year low from the early 80s to the mid 90s (late February 1985), when gold hit a multi-year low of $284.25, and the DOW was at 1,284.01: a $10,000 investment in Gold in February 1985, would now be worth $32,427.44; and a $10,000 investment in diversified DOW stocks would now be worth $96,912.33.

Just use your intuition, and look at the 33-year chart of gold prices: (1) it went down during most of the 1980s and 1990s; and (2) we're now on a part of the curve right now that looks ominously like the January 1980 part of the curve, and it went way down after that and has taken 28 years to get back up to that price. Compare that chart to this: http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart3:symbol=^dji;range=19780127,20080128; indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logsc ale=on;source=undefined A diversified stock portfolio has beaten the pants off gold I think during any long haul period you can name.

See http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html