Mortgage Commentary

[Adam in CO]

Wedesday?s bond market has opened in negative territory again with no relevant economic news on tap and the stock markets showing small gains. The Dow is currently up 20 points and the Nasdaq up 9 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which will likely push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release today or tomorrow. The Labor Department will release weekly unemployment claim stats early tomorrow morning, but this data usually is not much of an influence on bond trading or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Tomorrow?s report is expected to show that new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 325,000 last week. However, unless they reveal a much higher or much lower number, I am expecting the bond market to react more to stock movements than this data.

There is a 10-year Treasury Note auction tomorrow. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. But, if the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, those losses are normally recovered after the results are announced. The results will be posted at 1:00 pm ET tomorrow. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading.

Due partly to a lack of data today and tomorrow and a suspicion that we will see stock prices rise further, I am holding the lock recommendation for immediate and short-term periods. As a reminder, this does not necessarily mean that I think rates will move higher during those time frames. It simply means that the risk versus reward of continuing to float has shifted more towards the risk side.

Friday brings us the release of three pieces of news that could affect mortgage rates, including one very important release. Look for plenty of movement in bonds and mortgage rates Friday.